The Wagner Group’s departure from Ukraine is not expected to significantly alter the war’s trajectory. Its influence was confined to a limited portion of the front, and the actual number of combatants has been exaggerated. Even prior to their recent withdrawal, the group had largely disengaged from the conflict.
A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests that the Wagner Group’s combat strength in Ukraine was likely overblown. Instead of the widely reported 25,000 fighters, the estimate places their maximum presence at around 4,000.
The impact of the Wagner Group on the war was modest at best. Their primary involvement was in the Donbas region, and they did not play a prominent role in major battles. Moreover, the group had already disengaged from the conflict prior to their recent withdrawal.
Consequently, the Wagner Group’s exit from Ukraine is unlikely to significantly influence the war’s course. They were not a major player, and their withdrawal will not alter the overall balance of power.
Nevertheless, the withdrawal of the Wagner Group holds symbolic importance. Being closely aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin, their departure could be seen as a sign of Putin’s diminishing control over the war. Additionally, this move may bolster the morale of Ukrainian forces, who may perceive the conflict as more winnable.
In summary, while the departure of the Wagner Group from Ukraine may not have a profound impact on the war, it does carry symbolic significance and could embolden Ukrainian forces.
